How is this possible? And will this trend hold as home-buyers make plans for 2016?
Immediate mortgage rate reaction to Fed meeting
Most U.S. mortgage loans up to $417,000 are packaged into bonds called Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), and these bonds trade daily in global markets.
Throughout each day, mortgage rates fall when MBS prices rise, and mortgage rates rise when MBS prices fall.
Mortgage rates rose as investors sold MBS ahead of the December 16 Fed meeting. It was widely expected the Fed would hike the short-term Fed Funds Rate, but without knowing how the Fed might position 2016 rate policy overall, MBS investors took the conservative stance of selling ahead of the meeting.
Then when the Fed meeting announcement actually came out, the Fed said it was only hiking the Fed Funds Rate by .25 percent, and will take a “gradual” approach to tightening rate policy from here.
Bond markets reacted positively, and MBS buying resumed, pushing mortgage rates down.
Mortgage rate outlook based on revised Fed policy
Now markets are estimating the “gradual” Fed Funds Rate hikes will happen about four times in the next year, for a total of about one percent.
But the Fed Funds Rate is intended to influence broad rate markets overall, not to have a direct impact on mortgage rates.
For example, the last time the Fed lifted Fed Funds was from June 2004 to July 2006, when they hiked a total of 4.25 percent. During that same time period, 30-year fixed mortgage rates only rose 0.5 percent.
As such, if 2016 estimates call for Fed Funds to rise one percent, mortgage rates probably won’t rise by that full amount. However, there is one other element of Fed policy that does directly impact mortgage rates.
In response to the financial crisis, the Fed started buying MBS in January 2009 in order to push up MBS prices and keep mortgage rates down. In recent years, they slowed their highly aggressive MBS buying, but still buy enough MBS to influence mortgage rates.
The December 16 Fed statement reaffirmed they’d continue this MBS buying as they move through their Fed Funds Rate hiking cycle. This eased MBS market concerns, and should prevent a sharp spike in mortgage rates.
What higher mortgage rates mean for home buyers
Given all these factors, market estimates call for mortgage rates to rise about 0.5 percent by mid-2016. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts mortgages for purchases will increase by 10 percent in 2016, so rates will certainly impact — but shouldn’t derail — your home buying plans for 2016.
Article originally published on Zillow.com